attack on an American CVN tasked to defend Taiwan

Question: Describe a likely Chinese attack on an American CVN tasked to defend Taiwan. Where would the CVN be, and what would the Chinese missile tactics be? How would the U.S. Navy defend the CVN?

Answer:

A Chinese attack on a U.S. aircraft carrier (CVN) tasked with defending Taiwan would be a complex operation leveraging China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, particularly its anti-ship missiles, to disrupt U.S. power projection in a Taiwan Strait crisis. Below is a plausible scenario outlining the CVN’s likely position, Chinese missile tactics, and U.S. Navy defense strategies, based on open-source data and military analyses.

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CVN Positioning

Location: The CVN, part of a Carrier Strike Group (CSG) with 1–2 cruisers, 2–3 destroyers, a submarine, and 70–80 aircraft, would likely operate in the Philippine Sea or east of Taiwan (1,800–2,500 km from China). This keeps it beyond the range of most Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) like the DF-21D (1,500 km) and reduces exposure to the DF-26B (4,000 km). Positioning near or beyond Guam allows the CVN’s air wing, extended by MQ-25 Stingray refueling drones, to strike targets in the Taiwan Strait (~2,000 miles range). Alternatively, for a show of force, the CVN could operate closer in the Philippine Sea or South China Sea (500–1,000 km from China), but this risks shorter-range missile threats (e.g., YJ-12, YJ-18). The CVN would maintain high mobility (up to 35 mph), covering over 6,000 square miles in 90 minutes to complicate targeting.

Role: The CVN projects air power, launches strikes against Chinese amphibious forces, and protects Taiwan’s airspace, but its distance reflects the missile threat, relying on submarines, bombers, and allies (e.g., Japan, Taiwan) for closer engagements.

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Chinese Missile Tactics

China’s attack would aim to neutralize the CVN to achieve a “fait accompli” in Taiwan, using a multi-wave missile barrage supported by intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). Tactics include:

1. ISR and Targeting:
   • China would use Yaogan satellites, WZ-8 UAVs, and over-the-horizon radar to locate the CVN. Continuous tracking is challenging due to U.S. electronic warfare (EW) and the CVN’s mobility, as China lacks a robust real-time satellite constellation.
   • Decoy ships or patrol missions might bait the CSG into revealing its position, as seen in Chinese wargames.
2. Missile Salvo:
   • First Wave (Hypersonic ASBMs): 8–12 DF-26B or YJ-21 hypersonic missiles (Mach 10–12 terminal speed) launched from mainland sites or Type 055 destroyers, equipped with maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs) or hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs), to deplete SM-3 interceptors. A 2023 Chinese wargame simulated 24 hypersonic missiles sinking the USS Gerald R. Ford and escorts.
   • Second Wave (Cruise Missiles): 10–20 YJ-12 (Mach 2.5–4) or YJ-18 (Mach 2–3 terminal) cruise missiles from H-6K bombers, Type 052D destroyers, or submarines to exploit gaps after SM-3 depletion, targeting the CVN and escorts in saturation attacks.
   • Mop-Up Wave: 6–8 additional hypersonic missiles (e.g., DF-27) or cruise missiles to finish damaged ships, as simulated in the USS Gerald R. Ford scenario.
   • Supporting Assets: Type 093A submarines could launch YJ-18s or torpedoes, while J-15 fighters from CNS Shandong or Liaoning deploy decoys or simulated strikes.
3. Goals:
   • Overwhelm CSG defenses with volume to achieve a mission kill (disabling the flight deck or radar) or sink the CVN.
   • Conduct a rapid, surprise “bolt-from-the-blue” attack to neutralize the CSG before U.S. response.
4. Challenges:
   • U.S. EW and mobility disrupt targeting.
   • ISR vulnerabilities (e.g., jammed satellites) hinder the kill chain.
   • Sinking a CVN risks massive U.S. retaliation, deterring attack unless China expects quick victory.

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U.S. Navy Defense Strategies

The CSG employs layered defenses to disrupt China’s kill chain and counter missiles, using active and passive measures:

1. Disrupting ISR:
   • Electronic Warfare: EA-18G Growlers use Next Generation Jammers to disrupt Chinese radar, satellite links, and missile guidance.
   • Deception: Decoy drones, chaff, and flares mimic the CVN’s radar signature, confusing sensors. RAND suggests “multi-domain drone mimics.”
   • Anti-Satellite: Jamming or destroying Chinese ISR satellites, though escalatory.
2. Active Missile Defense:
   • Aegis System: Arleigh Burke destroyers and Ticonderoga cruisers use SM-3 interceptors for mid-course ballistic missile defense and SM-6 for terminal ballistic and cruise missile intercepts (up to 240 km). New SM-6 variants target hypersonic glide vehicles.
   • Close-In Defense: Phalanx CIWS (20mm Gatling guns) and SeaRAM (Rolling Airframe Missiles) engage missiles within 2–10 km. Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles (ESSM) provide mid-range defense.
   • Directed-Energy: HELIOS lasers on destroyers disable drones or missiles, though limited by weather and power.
3. Passive Defenses:
   • Mobility: The CVN’s speed and unpredictable movements hinder targeting.
   • Dispersal: Escorts form a 50–100-mile defensive perimeter around the CVN.
   • Hardening: The CVN’s compartmentalization and redundancy mitigate damage, though hypersonic warheads pose risks.
4. Air Wing:
   • F-35Cs and F/A-18E/Fs intercept Chinese aircraft or missiles with AIM-120 AMRAAMs, leveraging F-35C stealth and sensors.
   • MQ-25 Stingrays extend air wing range, allowing safer CVN positioning.
5. Allied Support:
   • Japanese Aegis destroyers and Taiwan’s Hsiung Feng III missiles engage Chinese forces closer to Taiwan.
   • U.S. bombers (B-21, B-52) and Virginia-class submarines from Guam attrit Chinese assets.
6. Challenges:
   • Large salvos (20–24 missiles) may exhaust SM-3/SM-6 magazines, per CSIS wargames.
   • Hypersonic missiles (e.g., YJ-21) challenge interceptors, though SM-6 upgrades help.
   • Saturation attacks could overwhelm defenses.

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Likely Outcome

• Chinese Success: A surprise salvo of 24 hypersonic missiles could sink or disable the CVN if targeting is accurate and U.S. defenses are overwhelmed, as in a 2023 Chinese simulation. However, U.S. EW and mobility make this unlikely.
• U.S. Defense: Aegis, EW, and decoys could intercept 50–70% of missiles, especially if the CVN is beyond 2,000 km. Damage is possible, but sinking is unlikely. A mission-kill could disrupt operations, though submarines and bombers continue the fight.
• Strategic Impact: A sunk CVN escalates the conflict, risking U.S. strikes on mainland China. CSIS wargames suggest U.S. resilience despite carrier losses.

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Sources: U.S. Department of Defense 2020 China Military Power Report, CSIS and RAND wargames, International Institute for Strategic Studies, and X posts on Chinese missile tests (e.g., DF-26B 2020, YJ-21 2022).

Nazis and decadence

During the Weimar Republic (1918–1933), before the Nazis came to power, Germany—particularly Berlin—experienced a period of cultural flourishing and social liberalization. This era saw the rise of a vibrant cabaret culture and a relatively open environment for transgender and queer communities. Cabarets were known for their decadence, satire, and performances that often pushed boundaries, including those related to gender and sexuality.

Transgender culture also thrived during this time, supported by progressive figures like Magnus Hirschfeld, who founded the Institute for Sexual Science in 1919. The institute provided medical care, research, and advocacy for transgender individuals, and Berlin became a hub for queer nightlife, with venues like the Eldorado Club catering to gay, lesbian, and transgender patrons.

Nazism, however, did not foster this culture—it actively suppressed and destroyed it. When the Nazis seized power in 1933, they targeted these expressions of "decadence" and nonconformity as part of their ideology of racial purity and moral conservatism. The Institute for Sexual Science was raided and its library burned in May 1933, transgender-friendly venues like the Eldorado were shut down, and transgender individuals faced persecution.

Women and power

 

1. Politics is a proxy for violence.

If you give political power to people who can't win a fight, you destroy the value of politics and force society to revert to violence.

2. Women should never be allowed in the military

a. women are not as strong as men physically
b. women don't have the spatial reasoning abilities of men
c. women are not as competitive as men
d. women are traumatized by killing
e. women are too precious to waste in war

3. Non-fighters do not get to decide when to fight.
a. a decision to go to war is very serious and people who do not risk their lives are not motivated by the fear of death
b. the men who do put their lives at risk have the right to be involved in the decision and not have their vote diluted.
c. women who are not at risk of death are not motivated to study war like men are.

Century of Humiliation

The "Century of Humiliation" (roughly 1839–1949) is a foundational narrative in modern Chinese history, extensively taught through the country's education system, promoted in state media, and embedded in political rhetoric by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Since the 1990s, the CCP has intensified "patriotic education," making this period a compulsory part of school curricula from elementary levels onward. Given that education is mandatory in China for at least nine years and literacy rates exceed 97%, it’s reasonable to infer that nearly all Chinese citizens with formal schooling—essentially the vast majority of the population—have been exposed to this historical concept.

Additionally, the narrative is reinforced through cultural channels like museums (e.g., the "Road to Revival" exhibit), television, and public events tied to national milestones. For example, Mao Zedong’s 1949 proclamation that China had "stood up" after a century of humiliation is a widely recognized moment, and Xi Jinping’s speeches frequently reference this era to frame China’s modern ambitions. This saturation suggests awareness is extremely high, likely approaching 100% among adults who’ve grown up under this system.

A 2024 study surveying 1,890 Chinese netizens found that invoking the "Century of Humiliation" in a controlled experiment significantly influenced respondents’ sense of national identity and suspicion of foreigners, especially among those without college degrees (who make up about 93% of the population, given only 7% have post-secondary education). This implies not just awareness but an emotional connection for many.

Gaza, Ukraine

The Golden Age of American Jews Is Ending
https://archive.ph/0ImE6

The Jewish Case for Open Borders
https://jewishcurrents.org/the-jewish-case-for-open-borders

Is there such a thing as a border that is both strong and just? The historical record and present-day realities suggest that there is not, and that what we need is not immigration reform, but open borders.

This de facto “one-state reality” has led many commentators to conclude that the only alternative is to organize for a single state that is both democratic and secular. The details of this process will be messy, but the South African example—disproving warnings of “white genocide” that circulated on the right in the 1980s—suggests that there is little reason to fear the end of Jewish life in a binational state. 

Great Replacement
https://www.ajc.org/translatehate/great-replacement

A conspiracy theory rooted in the belief that the white race is under threat of extinction at the hands of Jews and other minorities.

Strong advocates for immigrants
https://www.jta.org/2025/02/06/politics/strong-resolve-weakened-means-jews-try-to-keep-focus-on-immigration-and-refugees-under-trump-2-0

Schaffer added that immigration is, overwhelmingly, the biggest issue driving new Jewish supporters to JCUA: “Right now when folks are reaching out and saying, ‘OK, we want to mobilize in this moment,’ it’s because they want to mobilize around immigrant justice in particular.”

It’s also animating large Jewish groups such as the American Jewish Committee, which this week urged the Trump administration to continue supporting USAID. 

Immigration will always be a Jewish issue
https://religionnews.com/2025/03/04/immigration-judaism-jewish-miami/

I invoked the Jewish contribution to the Civil Rights Movement. I placed before us the memory of Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel. I thought of Jewish civil rights activism and the plight of immigrants, because of the hereditary liberalism of the Jewish community, because it harked back to our immigrant period and/or the sense that a world in which any group is oppressed is ultimately a world that will oppress Jews as well.

I invoked the words of Torah: “Love the stranger, for you were strangers in the land of Egypt.” It’s the most cited commandment in the Torah, and rumor has it we can find that injunction in one form or another 36 times in the Torah.

Some Russian history

 

From Tim Siwiec:

During the collapse of the Soviet Union, The United States under President Bush Sr provided the Soviet Union a $1 billion dollar loan and guaranteed the US and NATO wouldn't seek to gain influence in Eastern Europe.

Russia has nearly been obliterated 3x in the last 220 years by invasions from Western Europe (Napolean, The Kaiser and Hitler). They consider a buffer between themselves and Western Europe as a political necessity.

President Clinton, upon assuming power, quickly began the process of swallowing up Eastern European countries. It continued under every future President, with President Obama toppling the elected government in Ukraine and replacing it with Zelensky.

During this whole time, ethnic Russians throughout modern Ukraine were being killed by Ukrainian nationals. It was a continuation of the UPA (pro-Nazis Ukrainians in World War 2) policies (they were also killing Poles before/during/after WW2) and why the current Ukrainian military adopted the divisional emblem of the 14th SS Waffen Grenadier Division "Galizien" (SS division raised using Ukrainian volunteers).

Modern Ukraine only includes the currently contested regions of the Crimea and DonBas because Premier Khruschev awarded them to the Ukraine in the early 1950's for the majority of the Ukrainian population ultimately fighting against the Nazis in World War 2. The DonBas region was historically the land of the Cossack Khanates (population removed) and the Crimea was populated by the Crimean Tartars (Population virtually wiped out by series of wars). Those critical regions were only considered part of the Ukraine very recently and are populated by mostly Russians.

Russia has repeatedly told the West that the Ukraine cannot become part of NATO, because this will give the West a "first strike" ability to hit Moscow and other key areas without Russia having any response time. It will end the nuclear stalemate that preserved the peace through the Cold War. It is similar to the Cuban missile crises.

The real losers in this war are going to be the Ukrainians who allowed themselves to be used as a proxy Army to attempt regime change in Russia, and now will have to give up vital economic areas to Russia and turn over their mineral wealth to the US.

There are many other factors at play here, the Minsk Accords, leveraging against China and Iran, but you would need to write a book to discuss it.

Voting Rights Act of 1965

 

Voting Rights Act of 1965 requires the government to ensure black people have a black politician to speak for them. As the enabling legislation for the 14th and 15th amendments, the VRA has the power of the constitution.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965

In Thornburg v. Gingles (1986) the United States Supreme Court explained with respect to the 1982 amendment for section 2 that the "essence of a Section 2 claim is that a certain electoral law, practice, or structure interacts with social and historical conditions to cause an inequality in the opportunities enjoyed by black and white voters to elect their preferred representatives."