https://www.hoover.org/research/californias-high-speed-rail-was-fantasy-its-inception
California’s HSR is perhaps the greatest infrastructure failure in the history of the country. And the reason it failed is because of a gross failure of state governance, one on such a grand scale that it is nothing short of a betrayal of Californians.
The betrayal dates back to the project’s inception. A report by the state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) found that the program’s 2008 business plan—which had been legally required to be submitted to the state legislature on September 1, 2008 but was not released until after the bond issue was voted—was deficient. The plan did not present statistics on train capacity, forecasts of segment service levels, how funds would be secured, how costs would be distributed by system segment, an operating break-even point, what analytical methods were used to forecast ridership, expected completion dates for environmental review and construction, and how risks would be mitigated.
Imagine a business plan without discussion of future funding, project capacity, demand at the product (segment) level, how costs would be allocated, or how risks would be mitigated. The 2008 business plan was anything but a business plan. Voters approved $9.95 billion in bond financing for a dream, not a vetted project. And like most dreams, California high-speed rail has turned out to be a fantasy.
If the plan had been submitted by the required date—more than two months before the election—then these deficiencies would have come to light. Instead, voters trusted those whom they elected and voted to tax themselves to fund a project that was never going to be feasible. They trusted that California’s state government was capable of spending their tax dollars effectively. At one time, California governance was among the best in the country. Our state government created and built capital projects efficiently and quickly. In the 1960s, such trust was warranted. It no longer is.
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