Why did the United States successfully defeat the Soviet Union? I must say, the country that has studied the collapse of the Soviet Union more carefully than any other is China, because China knows the United States dreams of making China the next Soviet Union to collapse. So, how does China prevent this?
First, the Soviet Union didn’t collapse due to external pressures alone; it collapsed because of internal weaknesses. China realizes that to survive, it must have a strong, dynamic economy and society. In 1949, American thinker George Kennan presciently said that the outcome of the contest between the United States and the Soviet Union would depend not on weapons or troops, but on which society had greater spiritual vibrancy and strength.
The United States’ society was far more dynamic than the Soviet Union’s, so the U.S. thrived while the Soviet Union collapsed. China understands this, which is why it prioritizes massively educating its people and growing its economy to avoid becoming a second Soviet Union.
Second, China learned that the United States succeeded because it convinced many of the Soviet Union’s neighbors—Western Europe, Japan, South Korea—to join its containment policy. To counter this, China launched a preemptive strike against containment by ensuring its neighbors depend on its economy. For example, Singapore is part of ASEAN, which was formed on August 8, 1967, as a pro-American organization, denounced by both the Soviet Union and China at the time.
Despite ASEAN’s pro-Western stance and dialogues with the U.S., EU, Australia, and Japan, none of these Western partners proposed a free trade agreement with ASEAN. China was the first to do so in 2001. The impact of the China-ASEAN free trade agreement was phenomenal. In 2000, ASEAN’s trade with the U.S. was $135 billion, while trade with China was only $40 billion—more than three times smaller. By 2022, while ASEAN’s trade with the U.S. grew to $450–500 billion, trade with China surged to $975 billion, making it the world’s largest trading relationship. ASEAN cannot join a containment policy against its largest trading partner.
Third, China’s Belt and Road Initiative builds infrastructure worldwide—high-speed trains, highways, and more. Countries benefiting from this infrastructure are less likely to join a containment policy against China. This reflects China’s systematic grand strategy. However, China also respects the United States as a remarkable power and cannot underestimate what it might eventually do. The larger China grows, the harder it is to stop.
China’s long-term manufacturing strategy has made it indispensable globally. Check your kitchen cupboards—many product components come from China, and this is no accident. China has deliberately created deep global dependence on its manufacturing. Five years ago, few believed China could compete in the auto industry against Germany, Japan, Korea, or the U.S. Yet, China’s electric vehicle (EV) industry, built from scratch, now threatens global carmakers. Its manufacturing ecosystem for EVs is so advanced that even Elon Musk, who once dismissed it, now takes it seriously. This was not accidental but part of China’s long-term strategy. In five years, Chinese EVs will likely dominate globally.
As the world grows more dependent on China, the U.S.’s options narrow. This explains the sense of urgency in Washington, D.C. Figures like Robert Lighthizer and Matt Pottinger, who may advise Trump, emphasize the need to act quickly.
No comments:
Post a Comment